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9.18.2013

NEWS FLASH - Pound vulnerable to suggestions the recovery is losing momentum; GBP/USD still close to a 8 month high

Wednesday 18 September 2013 Can't read this email? Click Here


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Dear Subscriber,

Please find below today's news flash which gives you an insight into the current market conditions, enabling you to keep informed and up to date on the latest currency movements.

The Pound struggled to gain any fresh momentum on Tuesday, as traders adopted a more cautious approach to today?s Bank of England minutes for the September announcement. The UK currency did, however, maintain a generally firm tone against the majors and was able to absorb retail selling pressure. The headline UK consumer price data was in line with expectations with a decline in the annual inflation rate to 2.7% for September, from 2.8% previously. There was an increase in the retail price inflation rate to 3.3%, from 3.1%, and there will be concerns that consumer spending will remain restrained over the medium term. The latest housing data maintained a firm tone with prices rising 3.3% in the year to July with strong gains for London, while the regional data remained mixed.

Overall, the data released yesterday on inflation and housing will generate some concern that the economic recovery is losing a bit of momentum, which would also make it difficult for the Pound to advance beyond its current level. Sterling has risen above 1.19 against the Euro recently and surged to a fresh 8 month high just under 1.60 versus the U.S Dollar. The Pound has also gained 20% against the Australian and New Zealand Dollars from the lowest point this year but this may represent a good opportunity for Sterling sellers to take advantage of the bullish performance.

The Euro remained in a tight trading range versus the U.S Dollar yesterday with a high degree of caution ahead of the much anticipated FOMC statement this evening and the accompanying press conference from the Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. There has been much discussion surrounding both tapering of quantitative easing and forward guidance, especially with the Fed revising its economic forecasts. The Dollar overall has been unable to gain any significant gains and was still unsettled by speculation surrounding the appointment of the next Fed chairman.

In the Euro-zone, the latest German ZEW data was stronger-than-expected with the first above consensus reading for five months with an increase to the highest level in three years. The overall impact was limited given the recent run of firm German data and there was still underlying concerns surrounding the outlook for the Euro-zone. The ECB will remain under pressure to ensure that monetary conditions don?t tighten over the coming months.

Data Released 18th September

U.K 09:30 BoE Minutes from the MPC meeting on the 4th ? 5th September

U.S 13:30 Housing Starts (August)

U.S 18:00 FOMC Interest Rate Announcement

U.S 19:30 Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke Press Conference

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Regards,
TorFX

Any opinions expressed in this document are those of TorFX analysts. Any analysis and/or forecasts provided are aimed at helping clients understand market conditions and developing trends. Clients are wholly responsible for their own trading decisions.

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Market Analysis by Adam Solomon

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