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9.13.2013

NEWS FLASH - Pound rises through seven month high against the Euro and above 1.58 versus the U.S Dollar

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Dear Subscriber,

Please find below today's news flash which gives you an insight into the current market conditions, enabling you to keep informed and up to date on the latest currency movements.

The Pound edged lower against the majors on Thursday and encountered strong support below 1.58 versus the U.S Dollar. The UK currency also slipped back under 1.19 versus the Euro following an extensive testimony from the Bank of England Governor to the Treasury Select Committee over the latest inflation report with big focus on forward guidance. Mark Carney and other members of the Monetary Policy Committee insisted that the inflation target had not been dropped while also continuing to pledge that there would be no increase in interest rates or withdrawal of quantitative easing until the unemployment rate had fallen to at least 7.0%.

Carney was still wary over the economic prospects, warning over the risk of another false recovery. He also said that he was more concerned with keeping expectations of short-term interest rates down rather than long-term rates given the impact on consumers. There was also talk of potential exit strategies, which helped to support to Sterling. Significantly, Carney omitted to say anything to help push down yields, which was supportive to Sterling with only a small decline in 10-years yields from the recent peak above 3%.

The latest Euro-zone economic data was generally weaker-than-expected with a 1.5% decline in industrial production for the region and a 1.1% output slide in Italy reinforced the lack of confidence in the Italian economic outlook. The Euro edged back towards 1.3280 before the U.S markets opened but ranges were generally quite narrow the course of the day. The European Central Bank President Mario Draghi remained very cautious over the outlook in the Euro-zone with further wariness over growth conditions.

Despite the sense of relief that deposit stresses had eased, there were still important concerns surrounding lending. He did reiterate that interest rates would stay lower until at least the end of next year. In the U.S, the latest weekly jobless claims data was stronger-than-expected with initial claims falling to 292,000, from 323,000 previously and this was the lowest reading since August 2006. The latest retail sales data will be watched closely today for further evidence on economic trends and the potential for Fed tapering next week.

Data Released September 13

EU 10:00 Employment (Q2)

EU 10:00 Trade Balance (July)

U.S 13:30 Producer Price Index (August)

- Ex Food & Energy

U.S 13:30 Retail Sales (August)

U.S 14:55 Preliminary Michigan Sentiment (September)

U.S 15:00 Business Inventories (July)

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Regards,
TorFX

Any opinions expressed in this document are those of TorFX analysts. Any analysis and/or forecasts provided are aimed at helping clients understand market conditions and developing trends. Clients are wholly responsible for their own trading decisions.

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Market Analysis by Adam Solomon

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