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9.09.2013

GBP EUR Market Update - Pound up to a 7.5-month high against the Euro

Monday 09 September 2013 Can't read this email? Click Here

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Please find below our latest update for your chosen currency. If you need to discuss your requirements further, please contact your account manager or call us on 0800 612 9625 or +44 (0)1736 335250.

GBP EUR Market Update

Fuelled by another triplet of UK high-performance GDP data, the Pound sped to a 7.5-month high against the Euro last week.

Sterling rallied by around 0.6 cents on Monday, settling close to 1.1780, as August's UK Manufacturing PMI result came in at a 2.5-year high score of 57.2. The outperforming print carried many positives, including the fastest jump in New Orders and Output since 1994. Although the Eurozone factory output figure also impressed, at a 2-year high of 51.4, the single currency was left picking gravel out of its mouth as the turbo-charged UK PMI print propelled the Pound forward with pace.

GBP/EUR picked up another 0.4 cents on Tuesday as the latest Construction Purchasing Managers Index struck a near-6-year high of 59.1. The outstanding report showed that British building companies benefitted from considerable upticks in both private and public project spending last month.

Sterling accelerated against the Euro on Wednesday, rising to 1.1835, as the trio of robust UK PMI data was completed by a fresh 6-year high Service Sector Output score. Beating expectations, and all other prints since December 2006, the impressive figure now points towards UK GDP growth in the region of 1.0% for the third quarter, which makes it increasingly likely that the Bank of England will be forced into raising rates sooner than they currently intend to.

The Pound gained another half-cent on the single currency on Thursday as both the BoE and the ECB elected to leave interest rates unchanged at 0.50%. However, with markets sending UK Gilt yields to 2-year highs in anticipation of a rate hike before 2016 and the European Central Bank keen to point out that it discussed cutting rates further in September, the divergence in interest rate projections helped to thrust Sterling higher versus the single currency.

The Pound to Euro exchange rate reached its strongest level since January on Friday, before being dragged slightly lower by technical resistance. Although Eurozone Investor Confidence has already printed at a 2-year high of +6.5 this week, it is unlikely that the Euro will make any significant inroads against the Pound. GBP/EUR appears to be heading towards psychological resistance at 1.2000 but, unless we are treated to a protracted drop in UK Unemployment, it is doubtful that this level will be breached in the next seven days.

Heads Up:

Summary of major upcoming data releases that we think may move the market.

Date Time Issuing country/region Data Item Market Expectation Market Sensitivity
           
Sep 10 09:00 EUR Italian Gross Domestic Product s.a. and w.d.a -2.0%  
Sep 11 07:00 EUR German Consumer Price Index    
Sep 11 09:30 GBP ILO Unemployment Rate    
Sep 12 09:00 EUR ECB Publishes Monthly Report    
           
        Sensitivity  
        Medium  
        High  

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Regards,
TorFX

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