GBP EUR Market Update - Pound strikes a fresh 9-month high

Monday 30 September 2013 Can't read this email? Click Here

Dear Subscriber, Please find below our latest update for your chosen currency. If you need to discuss your requirements further, please contact your account manager or call us on 0800 612 9625 or +44 (0)1736 335250. GBP EUR Market Update The Pound struck a fresh 9-month high against the Euro at the beginning of this week's session as traders reacted with caution to the possibility that political tensions in Italy could bring down Prime Minister Enrico Letta's coalition government. Last Monday GBP/EUR advanced by around half a cent in response to a Eurozone Manufacturing data result that failed to impress markets. Coming in at 51.1, the PMI missed analysts' forecasts of 51.7; it was reported that signs of cooling in the usually indomitable German Manufacturing Industry influenced the result. The single currency found it difficult to fight back against the Pound and hopes of a Euro revival were ruined during the afternoon when European Central Bank President Mario Draghi hinted that he could introduce some new monetary easing measures in the near future to boost liquidity within the currency bloc. The Sterling to Euro exchange rate remained fairly close to the 1.1880 level on Tuesday as the German IFO Business Climate index, an important gauge of financial conditions in the Eurozone's most robust economy, printed at a 17-month high of 107.7. However, the result was slightly lower than markets had anticipated, and was therefore unable to lift the single currency versus the Pound. GBP/EUR rallied slightly on Wednesday as the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) reported that their index of Retail Sales struck a 15-month high of 34.0 in September. However, the Pound's gains were tempered by the best German Consumer Confidence figure since 2007. The Pound remained relatively flat against the Euro on Thursday as UK second quarter GDP was confirmed at a relatively impressive 0.7%, but the Current Account deficit was reported to have widened to -£13 billion. The Euro plunged against the Pound on Friday as German Consumer Prices came in at their lowest level for five months, which stoked fears that the ECB could look to spur credit growth with additional easing measures. Sterling was supported by comments from Bank of England Governor Mark Carney suggesting that, unlike the ECB, the UK Central Bank is not considering any further stimulus at this juncture. GBP/EUR touched a 9-month high of 1.1984 when markets reopened earlier this morning as traders reacted to the latest political crisis in Italy, the 17 nation bloc's third largest economy. Former PM Silvio Berlusconi has withdrawn support for current Prime Minister Enrico Letta's coalition government, which has raised the prospect of Italy suffering from a prolonged period of political instability. The single currency plummeted as investors attempted to protect themselves from the potential losses that could occur if Italy is unable to continue on its path of fiscal reform. Later this week we have Eurozone Unemployment numbers and British PMI results on tap, however, these figures are not expected to deviate much from the previous month and this should allow traders to focus on Wednesday's ECB rate decision. It is entirely possible that GBP/EUR could break above the psychologically significant 1.2000 level if the ECB opts for, or hints at, further stimulus. Heads Up: Summary of major upcoming data releases that we think may move the market. Date Time Issuing country/region Data Item Market Expectation Market Sensitivity             1st October 08:55 EUR Unemployment Rate s.a. (SEP) 6.8%     09:30 GBP GBP Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (SEP) 57.5     10:00 EUR EUR Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (AUG) 12.1%   2nd October 09:30 GBP GBP Purchasing Manager Index Construction (SEP)       12:45 EUR EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision (OCT 2)       12.45 EUR EUR ECB Deposit Facility Rate (OCT 2)     3rd October 09:00 EUR EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Composite (SEP F)       09:30 GBP GBP Purchasing Manager Index Services (SEP)       10:00 EUR EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) (AUG)             Sensitivity           Medium           High   If you need any further assistance, or require a live dealing quote - please do not hesitate to contact me on 01736 335250 or send an email to info@torfx.com Regards, TorFX Any opinions expressed in this document are those of TorFX analysts. Any analysis and/or forecasts provided are aimed at helping clients understand market conditions and developing trends. Clients are wholly responsible for their own trading decisions. Unauthorised copying or re-wording of this content is prohibited. The copyright of this content is owned by Tor Currency Exchange Ltd. Any unauthorised copying or re-wording will constitute an infringement of copyright.

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Daily insight: Sterling rallies across the board

Monday 30 September 2013 Can't read this email? Click Here

Read our great customer feedback. Click Here For the latest news read our currency blog. Click Here 09:30 GBP Mortgage Approvals (AUG) Medium 09:30 GBP Net Consumer Credit (AUG) Medium 10:00 EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Estimate (YoY) (SEP) Medium 13:30 CAD Gross Domestic Product (MoM) (JUL) Medium 14:45 USD Chicago Purchasing Manager (SEP) Medium   Dear Subscriber, Please find below today's update which gives you an insight into the current market conditions, enabling you to keep informed and up to date on the latest currency movements. Headlines Carney says no to more QE - Sterling rallies across the board. German CPI inflation down to 5-month low - ECB rate cut speculation harms Euro. GBP/USD up a cent - prospect of government shutdown spooks investors. GBP hits 3.5-yr high vs. CAD - RBA policy statement could weaken 'Aussie'. Sterling The Pound put in a stellar performance on the final day of last week's trading session, strengthening against most of the majors as Bank of England Governor Mark Carney commented that further monetary stimulus is not needed due to the UK economy's renaissance over the past few months. "My personal view is, given the recovery has strengthened and broadened, I don't see a case for quantitative easing and I have not supported it", he said. Sterling was also supported by a slightly stronger-than-expected GfK Consumer Confidence Survey result of -10 and a virile Nationwide House Price print of 5.0%, which stoked concerns that another bubble could be forming in Britain. Euro The Pound to Euro exchange rate advanced by around 0.4 cents on Friday as decent UK data bolstered support for Sterling and a soft German inflation print compromised demand for the single currency. The Euro responded well to a series of morning Eurozone ecostats showing that indexes of Economic Confidence, Industrial Confidence, and Services Confidences all exceeded analysts' expectations during September. However, the common currency plummeted during the afternoon as traders reacted to news that the headline German CPI inflation print came declined by one percentage point to a 5-month low of 1.4%. With inflation running at depressed levels it is entirely possible that the European Central Bank could embark on some form of monetary easing before the year is out. Political tensions in Italy added to the single currency's woes when markets reopened for the week and GBP/EUR struck a fresh 9-month high. US Dollar The US Dollar ceded a cent to the Pound on Friday as investors showed about as much enthusiasm towards the 'Greenback' as a pescetarian who has been misserved gammon when ordering the salmon at an à la carte restaurant. Although it was reported that US Personal Income, Personal Spending and Personal Consumption Expenditure Core all improved slightly in August, the US Dollar remained constrained due to fears that parliamentary officials may not be able to clinch a deal to avoid a government shutdown in October. The 'Greenback' also suffered from a fairly understandable drop in US Consumer Confidence from 82.1 to 77.5 in September, as Americans grew slightly more cautious in response to speculation that the Federal Reserve was on the verge of reducing its $85 billion a month stimulus programme. Canadian Dollar Sterling trounced its way to a fresh 3.5-year high against the Canadian Dollar on Friday, appreciating by just under a cent as BoE Governor Mark Carney pretty much ruled out the use of any further quantitative easing measures for the foreseeable future. The 'Loonie' was also subject to concerns that the potential US government shutdown in October could prove detrimental to the lucrative trade relationship between Canada and the US. Australian Dollar Sterling surged higher by around 2.0 cents against the Australian Dollar on Friday as traders positioned themselves ahead of this Tuesday's Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision. Although markets have only priced in a 6% chance of a rate cut in October, recent literature has hinted that the RBA will reduce rates in the next few months. Consequently, there is a fairly good chance that the Australian Central Bank will strike a dovish tone in their latest forthcoming statement. New Zealand Dollar GBP/NZD rallied by around 1.5 cents on Friday to a fortnightly high as Carney's hawkish BoE comments bolstered demand for the Pound. The 'Kiwi' Dollar was also subject to downward pressure as the political impasse in America threatens to dampen investors' appetite for risk. If you need any further assistance, or require a live dealing quote - please do not hesitate to contact me on 01736 335250 or send an email to info@torfx.com Regards, TorFX Any opinions expressed in this document are those of TorFX analysts. Any analysis and/or forecasts provided are aimed at helping clients understand market conditions and developing trends. Clients are wholly responsible for their own trading decisions. Unauthorised copying or re-wording of this content is prohibited. The copyright of this content is owned by Tor Currency Exchange Ltd. Any unauthorised copying or re-wording will constitute an infringement of copyright.

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Daily Insight - The Pound lost a bit of momentum yesterday

Friday 27 September 2013 Can't read this email? Click Here

Read our great customer feedback. Click Here For the latest news read our currency blog. Click Here 10:00 EUR Euro-Zone Economic Confidence (SEP) 13:00 EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (SEP P) 13:30 USD Personal Income (AUG) 14:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence (SEP F) Dear Subscriber, Please find below today's update which gives you an insight into the current market conditions, enabling you to keep informed and up to date on the latest currency movements. Headlines • UK Q2 GDP confirmed at 0.7% - yearly figure down to 1.3%. • UK Current Account widens - Business Investment slides. • GBP/USD down half a cent - US Jobless Claims impress. • GBP hits 3.5-yr high vs. CAD - Canadian crude oil prices fall. Sterling The Pound lost a bit of momentum yesterday as investors reacted to the final second quarter GDP revision. Encouragingly, the quarterly expansion was confirmed at 0.7% and Manufacturing output was revised higher to 0.9% - its highest level since 2010 - but sentiment towards Sterling was damaged by news that annualised GDP was downgraded from 1.5% to 1.3%. The Pound was also hurt by data showing that the UK Current Account deficit widened by £1 billion more-than-anticipated in the second quarter to -£13 billion and that Business Investment tanked by -2.7% during the same period. Although the fairly potent GDP print was contaminated with some unexpected nasties, Britain's economic outlook still looks fairly bright and many analysts expect growth to accelerate towards 1.0% in the third quarter, which has the potential to re-ignite Sterling's broad market rallies. Euro The single currency was subject to some jittery trading yesterday as fears of political instability in Italy re-emerged as Renato Brunetta, a close aid to PDL party leader Silvio Berlusconi, said that support could be removed from Italian PM Enrico Letta's coalition government if Berlusconi's ban from office is enforced. Brunetta denied that Berlusconi himself had instigated the move; rather she argued it was a question of morality: "There was no proposal for a mass resignation. We have only asked each parliamentarian to reflect on and decide according to his or her conscience." The situation was exacerbated by news that Italian President Giorgio Napolitano had pulled out of an appearance due to a "sudden and disturbing political development". This caused the Italian stock market to decline by -2% and bond yields to rise by 8 basis points. US Dollar Sterling sunk by around half a cent against the US Dollar yesterday as the British Current Account deficit, which has been running since 1998, widened to a softer-than-anticipated -£13 billion. The US Dollar was also buoyed by a fairly sanguine Initial Jobless Claims print of 305,000. Following two successive weeks of largely ignored figures, the latest print featured a full set of data and therefore bolstered demand for the 'Greenback', as technical errors in California and Nevada were rectified. The US labour market appears to be performing moderately well at the moment and, despite a run of below forecast Non-farm Payroll reports, the four-week Jobless Claims average is currently running at 308,000 - its lowest level since June 2007. Canadian Dollar The Pound failed to capitalise on the confirmation that the British economy expanded by an impressive 0.7% in the second quarter, as traders focussed on an unsavoury £1 billion increase in the Current Account deficit and a fairly downbeat -2.7% quarterly drop in Business Investment. Low prices offered for Canadian-brew crude oil continued to restrain the 'Loonie' against the US Dollar, but GBP/CAD steeped to a -0.6 cent daily defeat. Australian Dollar The risk-sensitive Australian Dollar advanced by around 0.35 cents against the Pound yesterday as a combination of disappointing UK trade figures and potentially sentiment-boosting news from Japan helped to impel the Antipodean currency higher versus Sterling. During the Asian session, news surfaced that the Japanese government is looking into reducing its corporate tax rate and this drove risk sentiment higher in the region, which subsequently saw demand increase for the 'Aussie' Dollar. New Zealand Dollar Sterling sunk to a -1.3 cent daily loss against the New Zealand Dollar yesterday. The reasons for the Pound's decline were almost identical to that of GBP/AUD - soft UK Current Account data and risk-on Asian trading - only they were exaggerated by the fact that the 'Kiwi' Dollar is a slightly more volatile currency than its Antipodean counterpart. If you need any further assistance, or require a live dealing quote - please do not hesitate to contact me on 01736 335250 or send an email to info@torfx.com Regards, TorFX Any opinions expressed in this document are those of TorFX analysts. Any analysis and/or forecasts provided are aimed at helping clients understand market conditions and developing trends. Clients are wholly responsible for their own trading decisions. Unauthorised copying or re-wording of this content is prohibited. The copyright of this content is owned by Tor Currency Exchange Ltd. Any unauthorised copying or re-wording will constitute an infringement of copyright.

Unsubscribe From our Daily Updates © Tor Currency Exchange Ltd | 0800 612 9625 | www.torfx.com Registered Company Name: Tor Currency Exchange Limited. Registered in England & Wales, Number: 5193147. Tor Currency Exchange Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority under the Payment Service Regulations 2009 (FRN 517320) for the provision of payment services. HM Revenue & Customs Money Laundering Regulation Number: 12191606.

Daily Insight - Sterling hits three-and-a-half year high versus the Canadian Dollar

Thursday 26 September 2013 Can't read this email? Click Here

Read our great customer feedback. Click Here For the latest news read our currency blog. Click Here 09:30 GBP Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (2Q F) 09:30 GBP Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (2Q F) 13:30 USD Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (2Q T) 13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (SEP 20) Dear Subscriber, Please find below today's update which gives you an insight into the current market conditions, enabling you to keep informed and up to date on the latest currency movements. Headlines • UK CBI Retail Sales boost Pound – strong Q3 GDP likely. • German Consumer Confidence hits 6-yr high – EUR gains wiped out by Retail Sales. • GBP/USD up 0.75 cents – US Durable Goods endure July downgrade. • GBP hits 3.5-yr high vs. CAD – Canadian crude oil prices fall. Sterling Sterling performed admirably on the currency market yesterday as another potent UK data release stoked speculation that third quarter GDP could print as high as 1.0%. The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) reported that their index of Retail Sales improved from 27.0 in August to a fresh 15-month high of 34.0 in September. Private consumption accounts for around 60% of the British economy and subsequently Sterling was given a sizeable boost by the best CBI score since June last year. The outperforming figure was largely influenced by a comprehensive rise in furniture and carpet sales: every single furniture and carpet store reported higher sales this month. Euro The Euro drew first blood against the Pound yesterday, rallying 0.3 cents in the morning as the GfK German Consumer Confidence index struck its highest score for six years. The slight rise to 7.1 indicates that German consumers are eager to go out and spend to celebrate their country's improving economic situation. Economic expectations are up over 27 points from this time last year and this is likely to result in enhanced spending in the run-up to Christmas. However, Sterling fought back by midday in response to the powerful CBI Retail Sales figure and GBP/EUR posted a slender 10 pip daily gain. US Dollar The Pound to US Dollar exchange rate rallied by just over 0.75 cents yesterday as Sterling sentiment was boosted by the stronger-than-expected UK private consumption figures for September. US Durable Goods Orders rebounded in August to 0.1%, beating forecasts for a -0.2% drop, however, support for the 'Greenback' remained muted as July's steep decline was downgraded from -7.3% to -8.1%. The US Dollar was also impacted by fears that another political showdown between Democrats and Republicans will destabilise debt ceiling negotiations. Canadian Dollar The 'Loonie' succumbed to another 3.5-year low against Sterling yesterday as the deficit between Canadian and US crude oil prices widened to a 6-month high of $30 per barrel. Sterling's one-cent gain means that one Pound will buy you more Canadian Dollars now than at any point since January 31st 2010. Australian Dollar GBP/AUD advanced by around 1.1 cents yesterday as Sterling powered its way back into life on the currency markets thanks to the latest dose of robust UK data. With British consumers spending the most this September since June last year, investors opted to raise their interest rate hike bets, despite the Bank of England's protestations, which bolstered demand for the Pound. The BoE is keen to keep a lid on interest rate speculation in order to convince businesses that cheap credit is here to stay for another few years at least. However, hike speculation heightens with each piece of positive UK data. New Zealand Dollar The Pound grew by just under a cent against the New Zealand Dollar yesterday as a dearth of domestic data down under led traders to focus their attentions on the highly encouraging UK CBI Retail Sales ecostat. If you need any further assistance, or require a live dealing quote - please do not hesitate to contact me on 01736 335250 or send an email to info@torfx.com Regards, TorFX Any opinions expressed in this document are those of TorFX analysts. Any analysis and/or forecasts provided are aimed at helping clients understand market conditions and developing trends. Clients are wholly responsible for their own trading decisions. Unauthorised copying or re-wording of this content is prohibited. The copyright of this content is owned by Tor Currency Exchange Ltd. Any unauthorised copying or re-wording will constitute an infringement of copyright.

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Daily Insight - The Pound stuttered somewhat yesterday

Wednesday 25 September 2013 Can't read this email? Click Here

Read our great customer feedback. Click Here For the latest news read our currency blog. Click Here 13:30 USD Durable Goods Orders (AUG) 15:00 USD New Home Sales (MoM) (AUG) Dear Subscriber, Please find below today's update which gives you an insight into the current market conditions, enabling you to keep informed and up to date on the latest currency movements. Headlines • More BoE QE possible - although unlikely due to economic recovery and high inflation. • German IFO hits 17-month high - slightly weaker-than-forecast. • GBP/USD down slightly - 'Octaper' speculation may be unwarranted. • Canadian Retail Sales up 0.6%- GBP/NZD up 1.3 cents. Sterling The Pound stuttered somewhat yesterday as outgoing Bank of England Deputy Governor Paul Tucker suggested that the UK Central Bank could provide further stimulus if slack in the domestic economy persists, but only if inflation expectations remain "anchored". Considering that the UK Consumer Price Index has printed above the 2.0% target in each of the previous 45 months, the BoE's definition of "anchored" appears to be fairly ambiguous. However, it is still unlikely that UK gilts will be treated to another yield-destroying dose of QE unless the nascent British revival falls apart at the seams in the fourth quarter. In other economic news it was reported that UK Mortgage Approvals rose to their highest level since December 2009 in August, however, the 38,228 print did not inspire Sterling strength because it was slightly lower than the 38,950 that markets had anticipated. Euro The Euro managed to post a slender set of daily gains against the Pound yesterday despite a lower-than-expected German IFO Business Climate print of 107.7. It seems that traders were not overly perturbed by the slight deviation from their forecasts, as the score was still the highest for 17 months. As the largest economic force in the currency bloc, Germany is often viewed as a proxy for wider Eurozone output. The latest positive indicator adds weight to the argument that fairly sturdy German growth in the second half of 2013 will lead to a fairly respectable set of GDP results for the resurgent 17-nation bloc. However, concerns that the single currency may be hit with another measure of monetary easing are likely to work against the Euro in the near-term. US Dollar US Consumer Confidence was reported to have dropped below the 80.0 mark for the first time since May yesterday, however, the US Dollar still registered a 0.3 cent improvement against Sterling as GBP/USD battled with key technical resistance levels. The disappointing Confidence score of 79.7 for September was influenced by a decline in sentiment towards jobs and wages among American consumers. The Dollar-negative effect of the Fed's decision not to taper in September is starting to wear off and there is potential for a GBP/USD reversal if the QE3 saga is subject to another plot twist. However, having said that, recent US data does not support a reduction of stimulus at this moment so any movement in the currency pair is likely to be dictated by market speculation rather than Central Bank action. Canadian Dollar The Canadian Dollar strengthened slightly against the Pound yesterday as Canadian Retail Sales came in one percentage point higher than forecast at 0.6%. However, the commodity-correlated 'Loonie' was negatively impacted by a decline in crude oil prices. The black gold, which is Canada's most lucrative export, plunged to a 6-week low as fears of a US intervention in Syria faded. Australian Dollar The Sterling to Australian Dollar exchange rate remained fairly static yesterday as the moderate UK mortgage figures failed to ignite market sentiment towards the Pound, but the 'Aussie' remained constrained by the latest round of Fed taper speculation. New Zealand Dollar The New Zealand Dollar plummeted by around -1.3 cents against the Pound yesterday as a drop in global equity markets tripped up the high-risk 'Kiwi'. A recent report compiled by Australian trading company CommSec into the price of an iPad in different countries shows that, contrary to the opinion of dismayed Antipodean business owners, the New Zealand Dollar is actually valued fairly in relation to its global currency peers. The light-hearted survey was not designed to alter monetary policy, but it does offer food for thought for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, who have been strongly urged to weaken the domestic currency in order to improve export competitiveness. If you need any further assistance, or require a live dealing quote - please do not hesitate to contact me on 01736 335250 or send an email to info@torfx.com Regards, TorFX Any opinions expressed in this document are those of TorFX analysts. Any analysis and/or forecasts provided are aimed at helping clients understand market conditions and developing trends. Clients are wholly responsible for their own trading decisions. Unauthorised copying or re-wording of this content is prohibited. The copyright of this content is owned by Tor Currency Exchange Ltd. Any unauthorised copying or re-wording will constitute an infringement of copyright.

Unsubscribe From our Daily Updates © Tor Currency Exchange Ltd | 0800 612 9625 | www.torfx.com Registered Company Name: Tor Currency Exchange Limited. Registered in England & Wales, Number: 5193147. Tor Currency Exchange Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority under the Payment Service Regulations 2009 (FRN 517320) for the provision of payment services. HM Revenue & Customs Money Laundering Regulation Number: 12191606.