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Market Update - GBP EUR The Pound reached a 22-month high of 1.2308 against the Euro this morning as the Instituto Nacional de Estadistica announced that Spain has entered a double-dip recession. The Spanish economy contracted by 0.3% in the first three months of 2012, which marks a technical recession as the country's economy also shrunk by the same amount in the last three months of 2011. The weak Spanish GDP figures are the latest in a long line of downbeat data to be released from Spain over the past week. On Thursday night Standard & Poor's downgraded Spain's credit rating from A to BBB+ which raised concerns about the country's ability to pay off its mammoth debt pile. The Unemployment data released on Friday showed that 24.4% of the population are now out of work. And weak Retail Sales – a decline of 3.7% in March – marked the 21st consecutive month of reduction. The Euro has suffered significantly as the pain in Spain hits investor confidence in the single currency. The Pound has been performing exceptionally well against the Euro lately, despite the shock announcement last week that the UK economy contracted by 0.2% in the first three months of 2012. It seems that investors are viewing the figures with a degree of mistrust as recent economic data has reflected positively on the UK. Many analysts are expecting an upward revision at some point in the future which has allowed Sterling to continue its strong surge against the Euro. Looking ahead this week and the threat of a Spanish bailout package is likely to overshadow the bulk of the Eurozone's data releases. PMI's in Manufacturing and Services, the Unemployment Rate, and the European Central Bank Rate, are all expected to remain unchanged. Whereas in the UK, Manufacturing, Construction, and Services PMI's are all predicted to fall slightly from March's exceptional strong levels. The Pound is likely to hold steady in and around today's 22-month high against the Euro. Heads Up:
Summary of major upcoming data releases that we think may move the market. | Date | Time | Issuing country/region | Data Item | Market Expectation | Market Sensitivity | | | | | | | | | April 30th | 07:00 | EUR | Spanish GDP (QoQ) (Q1) | -0.4% | | | April 30th | 07:00 | EUR | Italian Consumer Price Index (YoY) (April) | 3.6% | | | April 30th | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone Consumer Price Index (YoY) (April) | 2.5% | | | May 1st | 08:30 | UK | UK Manufacturing PMI (April) | 51.5 | | | May 2nd | 08:00 | EUR | Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (April) | 46 | | | May 2nd | 08:30 | UK | UK Construction PMI (April) | 54 | | | May 2nd | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone Unemployment Rate (March) | 10.9% | | | May 3rd | 08:30 | UK | UK Services PMI (April) | 54.1 | | | May 3rd | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone Producer Price Index (YoY) (March) | 3.4% | | | May 3rd | 11:45 | EUR | European Central Bank Rate Decision (May 3rd) | 1.00% | | | May 4th | 08:00 | EUR | Eurozone Services PMI (April) | 47.9 | | | May 4th | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) (March) | -1.1% | | | | | | | Sensitivity | | | | | | | Medium | | | | | | | High | | If you need any further assistance, or require a live dealing quote - please do not hesitate to contact me on 01736 335250 or send an email to info@torfx.com Regards,
TorFX 
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